source: http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=7158
KEY POINTS
KEY POINTS
- Imports growth for major trading partners has been softening;this indicates that Malaysia’s exports are likely to slow given the poor external demand
- Domestic consumption and private investments are expected to remain as the only major contributors to economic growth
- Sturdier current income, better outlook for income and employment as well as easing in inflationary pressure are most likely to support the expansion in consumer spending going forward
- The roll-out of projects under the Economic Transformation programme is likely to sustain the private investment
- Putting this all together, Malaysia is expected to grow by 4.0%-4.5% in 2012 after expanding 5.1% in 2011
- Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain an accommodative interest environment to support the economic growth with Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the remainder of 2012
- We believe that the current level of FBM KLCI has priced in the negative impacts of economic slowdown and lower earnings growth
- With forward PE of 15.3x, 13.8x and 12.7x based on consensus estimated earnings for 2012, 2013 and 2014 (data as at 23 July 2012), the upside potential for 2012 seems to have normalised based on a fair PE of 16x
- In the near term, external headwinds from the European debt crisis as well as the uncertainties that may arise from the 13th General Election could create a short-term consolidation, especially given the strong recent run-up in the Malaysian market
